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Handbook of International Diplomacy―The Authoritarian Edition: Vociferate to Precipitate

When your strategic planning relies on future outcomes that do not fall completely under your jurisdiction and/or involve your official dominion (in other words when there is no legitimate and expedient process of bringing them about) it is very helpful to borrow the paradigm of the Self-Improvement field, where subjects are encouraged to articulate, loud and clear, the goal they want to achieve or the attribute they wish to be associated with. In light of the diplomatic savoir-faire and the almost certain probability that the outcome you are vying for is considered by the international community as undesirable, unbeneficial or abhorrent, your frequent declarations should sound more as ominous warnings and less like wishful projections.


In this ongoing case study, you can observe how the Russian's desired eventuality of Ukrainian civil war, is repeatedly mentioned as something that must be avoided at all costs. At the same time, the more it is promulgated as a likely event, the more likely its actual happening becomes and the deeper it is lodged into the collective consciousness. Also notice the additional subtle technique of the Russians to subconsciously position their own possible future Action (military intervention) as a Reaction to a similar (but hypothetical) action by Ukraine (domestic military deployment). Again, by diligent repetition (as warning) of Ukrainian military involvement in the current crisis, its likelihood rises and even more importantly, the concept of military intervention becomes from preposterous to pragmatic. Please note that these diplomatic techniques do not preclude or inhibit any underhanded or stealth schemes by other State apparatuses.

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